The Status of The Leading Candidates
By Kehinde Owolabi
Nigeria’ Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), has officially confirmed that only the 18 officially registered political parties will be fielding candidates for the February 25, 2023 presidential elections. However, out of the official contenders, informed political watchers have asserted that only three contenders can be regarded as serious and leading contenders. The other 15 contenders or candidates are only in the race to give visibility to their parties’ identities and programs.
The three leading candidates for the purpose of this projection are: ATIKU ABUBAKAR of the People’s Democratic Party; BOLA AHMED TINUBU OF THE All Progressives Congress; and PETER OBI of the Labour Party.
We have divided this article into six parts, corresponding to the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. The organization of Nigeria in terms of its six geopolitical zones was worked out in 1995 by the regime of Late General Sanni Abacha. The six geopolitical zones are the North West; North Central; North East; South West; South South and the South East.
The North West Geopolitical zone
The North West Geopolitical zone comprises of seven states namely Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, kebbi Sokoto and Zamfara. The North West Geopolitical zone has the largest number of registered voters at 22,672,373. It is therefore a crucial and a must-win zone for all serious contenders for the presidency.
It must be noted that six out the seven sitting Governors in the zone are from the All Progressive Congress, the party of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. This becomes a big advantage in a country and in a political system where the Governors play a big role in determine the way people vote. Again, all the six sitting Governors are ardent supporters of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Our projection is that Bola Tinubu will win six of the seven states in this zone in the February 25 Presidential elections. Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party will be placed second while Peter Obi will emerge as a distant third placed contender.
The North Central Geopolitical Zone.
This geopolitical zone comprises of six states namely Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau and the federal capital territory (FCT).
Again, it must be noted that five of the six sitting Governors are of the APC. Not only that, the only PDP governor in the zone, Governor Sam Ortom has publicly declared he will not be supporting the candidate of his party at the presidential polls,
It can, therefore, be projected that Bola Ahmed will win five out of the six states in this geopolitical zone. Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi will occupy distant second and third positions respectively.
The North East Geopolitical Zone
This zone comprises of six states namely Adamanwa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe. This is the zone every stakeholder will be watching.
The zone is the home zone of Atiku Abubakar, the Presidential candidate of Peoples Democratic Party. It is also the home zone of the running mate to Ahmed Bola Tinubu, the Presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress. The PDP boasts of three sitting governors in this zone. I. e Adamanwa, Bauchi and Taraba states. Similarly, the All Progressives Congress controls three gubernatorial seats namely: Borno, Yobe and Gombe.
In the final analysis, I see extraneous ethno-religious factors playing out to the advantage of Atiku Abubakar. The zone is home to millions of Northern Nigeria Christians who might not have forgiven Bola Tinubu, a southern Nigerian for picking another Muslim from the North as his running mate.
I am projecting Atiku Abubakar of Peoples Democratic Party to win in four of the six states in this zone. I project that Bola Tinubu of the APC will win in the remainder two states. I am projecting that Peter Obi of the Labour Party will occupy a distant third place.
The South West zone
The South West zone comprises of six states states namely : Ekiti, Oshun, Ondo, Ogun, Oyo and Lagos states.
This zone is the political base of Ahmed Bola Tinubu the Presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress. Despite the fact that the PDP controls two of the six gubernatorial seats in the zone, I am predicting that Bola Tinubu of the APC will win a minimum of five states at the coming presidential election. I predict that Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi will come in as distant second and third respectively.
The South East Geopolitical Zone.
The South East geopolitical zone comprises of Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo states. It is the home state of Peter Obi of the Labour Party. I predict that Peter will only win one State in his own political base. I see Atiku Abubakar win three states. I see Bola Ahmed Tinubu occupying a distant third position here.
The South South Geopolitical Zone
This zone comprises of six states namely: Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, cross river, Edo, Delta and Rivers states. This zone has been a traditional stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party.
Barring an upset, I see Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party win four of six states in this Region. I predict that Ahmed Bola Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress will win the remaining two states. I predict that Peter Obi will show up in the distant third position in the south south zone.
We have attempted to do a brief analysis of the status of the leading candidates. Our conclusion is that the 2023 Presidential contest will actually be a two-horse race between Ahmed Bola Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress and Atiku Abubakar. This conclusion agrees with the opinion of informed political analysts; which is that Peter Obi of the Labour Party does not have the needed national network and structure to mount a credible Presidential race platform.
(Reference: Thanks to www.bbc.com)
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(Reference: Thanks to leadership.ng)